A meaningful refund isn’t “found money” for these companies, it’s back rent, payroll, and inventory funding that they’ve been effectively fronting to the government. For many, it would literally be the difference between shuttering and surviving....A tariff is just a tax on imports, paid by the U.S. business receiving the goods at the port of entry. Broad based tariffs don’t mainly hit foreign governments, they hit American companies and, indirectly, American consumers.
https://www.retaildive.com/news/winners-losers-black-friday-2025/806610/#:~:text=Additionally%2C%20units%20per%20transaction%20dropped,year%2C”%20CI&T's%20Minkow%20noted.
Black Friday 2025 sent a loud signal: shoppers are paying more for less, and they know it. In a retail environment already stretched by inflation, tariffs, and thinner staffing, that’s exactly the kind of pressure cooker that typically leads to higher shoplifting and fraud.
Retailers who acknowledge that reality now, and invest accordingly in prevention, EAS, store design, and smarter promotions, will be in a much better position when the 2026 “hangover” hits.
https://www.retaildive.com/news/winners-losers-black-friday-2025/806610/#:~:text=Additionally%2C%20units%20per%20transaction%20dropped,year%2C”%20CI&T's%20Minkow%20noted.
The NRF/LPRC/Sensormatic report makes one thing crystal clear: theft and violence aren’t going away on their own. Retailers are seeing more incidents, more organization, and more aggression than just a few years ago.
Black Friday 2025 will be a stress test for every loss prevention program. But with a data driven, layered approach, and EAS and security tags positioned at the center, you can:
Keep more product on the floor instead of behind glass
Protect employees and customers
Hold onto the margin you’re working so hard to drive that weekend
https://297051953189d612da9e-1e2a7931911c2abaf913026fb7c64860.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/Research/Retail%20Theft%20%26%20Violence/NRF_ImpactofRetailTheftViolence_2024.pdf
For big box chains with scale, that hurts. For independent retailers, dollar stores, convenience operators, pharmacies, apparel boutiques, it’s brutal. They already operate on thin margins, and they don’t have the leverage to negotiate everything away. So they either raise prices, reduce selection, or delay inventory refreshes. None of those options make shoppers happier.
https://www.votervoice.net/NRF/Campaigns/123436/Respond
If you sell auto parts today, you’re fighting a two-front war: rising costs and rising shrink. Parts were already high ticket; now, with broad tariffs touching a huge portion of the automotive supply chain, and headline rates around 25% on some vehicle categories, sticker prices are climbing. That squeezes honest shoppers and, unfortunately, makes parts a hotter target for opportunistic theft and organized retail crime (ORC).
If you run brick and mortar retail, October is a double edged sword. Traffic spikes (great), but so do theft attempts (not great). And this year, the cost of Halloween inventory is higher than usual thanks to tariffs and commodity pressures. Here’s what to expect, and what to do, before the spooky season hits full stride.
When sales accelerate, more units move through your doors, more merchandise sits on the floor, and more associates are stretched to meet demand. That combination reliably increases opportunistic theft, especially in small, high-margin items (beauty, accessories, electronics peripherals) and busy zones near entrances/exits. With tariffs lifting input costs and wage pressure still elevated in many markets, every basis point of shrink now cuts deeper into profitability.
In New York City, the 34th Street Partnership piloted a program with Stapleton Security to station trained dogs and handlers inside and outside a CVS near 34th & 8th. The mission is deterrence, not pursuit: the dogs don’t chase; they signal that someone is paying attention.
https://warwickonline.com/stories/how-to-curb-your-dogs-shoplifting,280406
On August 20, 2025, the City of West Hollywood made headlines by voting unanimously to ban the retail sale of nearly all live animals within city limits. The amendment to West Hollywood Municipal Code Chapter 9.50.020 expands the city’s previous ban on selling dogs and cats...As laws shift to protect animals, pet retailers must still protect their inventory. Loss prevention isn’t just about profits; it ensures honest customers aren’t paying the price for theft driven losses.
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/west-hollywood-elects-to-ban-retail-sales-of-nearly-all-live-animals/
I run programs for hundreds of doors with mixed risk, mixed fixtures, and a constant need to protect margin without wrecking the shopper experience. My approach is boring by design, standardize the fewest SKUs that cover the most scenarios, keep checkout clean, and make sure detachers match locks at every lane.
Historically, core goods inflation, covering items like apparel, home furnishings, and electronics, has been muted. In July, however, economists noted that tariff-driven cost increases are starting to make their way to the shelf. This is particularly relevant for retailers that depend on imported goods from countries targeted by recent tariff actions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/12/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-july-2025-in-one-chart.html
Walmart is making headlines for…not backing down. With a wave of high profile arrests and prosecutions across the country, Walmart is showing the retail industry what it looks like to take theft seriously, and local courts are stepping up to support them.
https://apnews.com/article/michigan-walmart-car-wash-shoplifters-fcbc8bf71934adc0660484e78d8443fd
Industry reports have long noted that organized retail crime spikes during periods of economic uncertainty. The current surge in tariffs is likely to increase shrink even further, as both opportunistic and organized theft exploit vulnerable retail environments.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trumps-tariffs-rekindle-global-trade-tensions.html
The price of baby formula and premium coffee has surged due to global tariffs, supply chain constraints, and rising commodity costs. These price hikes have made these goods even more attractive targets for organized retail theft rings, many of whom resell stolen goods online or to unregulated wholesalers.
In April 2025, bipartisan lawmakers in Congress introduced the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (H.R. 2853 / S. 1404) a groundbreaking bill designed to fight back against the rise of sophisticated theft rings targeting retailers and supply chains.
With organized retail crime (ORC) on the rise nationwide, this legislation could reshape how law enforcement, retailers, and transportation providers work together to tackle theft and fraud. Here’s what you need to know:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1404/text
Retailers know the frustration: a customer is ready to buy a pair of sneakers, sandals, or flip-flops—only to discover one is missing. Or worse, a shoplifter has walked out with a single shoe, leaving its mate behind as dead stock. These seemingly small issues add up to lost sales, frustrated shoppers, and wasted time for sales associates trying to match items that have been separated.
With tariffs hitting consumer staples from cars to electronics, apparel to home goods, retailers will be paying much more for inventory. Some newly tariffed imports will see duties as high as 36% or 40%, adding pressure to supply chains already strained by global uncertainty.
The likely result? Scarcity on store shelves, higher prices for consumers, and a retail environment ripe for theft.
Security Tags Matter!
While much of the conversation centered on digital threats, physical loss prevention tools like EAS (Electronic Article Surveillance) security tags remain a critical part of a multi-layered defense. As theft rings grow bolder and more strategic, including a reported 1,475% spike in cargo theft via deception between 2022 and 2024, visible deterrents like tags, labels, and sensors are evolving in both form and function.
https://nrfprotect.nrf.com/attend/2025-event-recap
Despite the backend data advantages RFID provides, the absence of visible deterrents sends the wrong message to would-be thieves. As with home security, visibility matters, alarms, signage, and cameras all reduce the likelihood of criminal behavior. In stores, hard tags and pedestals play that same role.
EAS systems trigger an alarm, but some brazen shoplifters often gamble they can get away or that staff won’t respond. With ink tags, the risk is greater: even if they succeed in leaving the store, the ink tag is there to prevent use, return, or resale of the item.