Shoplifting related to tariffs is expected to explode in 2025…
As of April 2025, the retail world has been thrust into fresh uncertainty. With the U.S. government imposing steep new tariffs—up to 170% on many Chinese goods—and trading partners retaliating swiftly, retailers are bracing for a ripple effect that could hit both margins and customer wallets.
While global policy unfolds at breakneck speed, on the ground, retailers like Walmart, Weis Markets, Redner’s Markets, and The Giant Company are confronting an undeniable truth: higher costs are coming, and retail security threats may rise alongside them.
Tariffs and the Cost of Goods: The Consumer Will Feel It
Walmart executives recently acknowledged the fluidity of the situation, admitting that tariffs are already making it harder to predict operating income growth. For companies that rely on global supply chains—especially those importing produce, electronics, or consumer goods—tariffs translate to higher cost of goods sold (COGS). And as multiple grocery leaders pointed out, even with moderate inflation in 2024, customers are still reeling from two years of price hikes.
The result? Lower-income households, which form a major segment of Walmart’s customer base and many grocery chains, are less able to absorb these increases. As John David Rainey, Walmart CFO, put it: volatility is now a day-to-day reality.
Perceived High Prices May Lead to Increased Theft
When food and household staples feel unaffordable, frustration builds—and unfortunately, so does retail shrink. Executives from Weis Markets and Redner’s Markets voiced concern that consumers, already “up to their eyeballs” in cost-of-living pressures, may resort to theft, especially for high-necessity goods.
Organized Retail Crime (ORC) rings remain a constant threat, but internal theft and crimes of opportunity are also expected to rise as desperation sets in.
Technology as a Frontline Defense: EAS, CCTV, and AI
Retailers are responding not just with pricing strategies and loyalty programs, but with an increased investment in security technology. Here’s how the tools stack up:
🔒 Electronic Article Surveillance (EAS)
EAS systems—whether AM or RF—are vital for high-theft categories like apparel, electronics, and even health and beauty. EAS tags and pedestals create a visible deterrent and allow for non-intrusive protection without burdening honest shoppers.
As prices rise, more goods will be worth stealing. EAS allows stores to protect high-value, high-demand products, preserving margins without locking items behind glass.
🎥 Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV)
Modern CCTV systems offer high-definition coverage, remote monitoring, and integration with motion and heat sensors. Visual surveillance alone can prevent theft, but more importantly, it allows for forensic review of incidents and enables partnerships with law enforcement.
As Weis Markets noted, recent laws have improved prosecution of ORC, but evidence is everything. High-quality video footage can make or break a case.
🧠 Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI is rapidly transforming retail security. From real-time theft detection to predictive behavior analytics, AI can flag unusual shopping patterns, alert teams to suspicious behavior, and even preempt loss.
Redner’s Markets specifically mentioned leveraging AI tools to detect and respond before a crime occurs. Combining AI with EAS and CCTV provides a layered approach—AI can analyze video feeds and trigger alerts, while EAS provides physical deterrence and exit protection.
Conclusion: Plan for Higher Risk, Invest in Smart Defense
Tariffs, like inflation, are an external shock. Retailers can’t control them—but they can control how they prepare. With customers stretched thin and prices likely to rise, now is not the time to delay security investments.
Loss prevention is no longer optional—it’s strategic. Retailers who deploy smart, integrated systems (EAS + CCTV + AI) will be better equipped to protect margins, ensure staff safety, and maintain customer trust during uncertain times.
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